The RAND Corporation has just released a research report on How Terrorist Groups End. It clearly shows that the most effective strategy would be one based on a Police-Oriented Counterterrorism effort, rather than the current “War on Terror”.
The United States cannot conduct an effective counterterrorism campaign against al Qa'ida or other terrorist groups without understanding how such groups end. While it is clear that U.S. policymakers will need to turn to a range of policy instruments to conduct such campaigns — including careful police and intelligence work, military force, political negotiations, and economic sanctions — what is less clear is how they should prioritize U.S. efforts.